Soil - Climate Paper: Overview & Reduction Target Scenario
Soil - Climate Paper: Overview & Reduction Target Scenario
1) Introduction and framing the problem.
What do we want?
Perennial grasses returning to billions of acres of degraded land have the potential of reversing global warming.
Atmospheric
CO2 levels have reached 385 ppm leading to accelerating loss of polar
ice and other problems associated with global warming. Reducing this
level by 75 ppm to a much safer 310 ppm would require the sequestering
of 150 billion tons (150 GT) of carbon. There are at least 15 billion
acres of degraded land on the planet which have lost 50% to 75% of
their original soil carbon. The potential carbon sink is at least 1000
GT in these soils if better land use decisions were made. (70 tons per
acre x 15 billion acres) Fire is used as a tool to reduce vegetation
on much of this land which is counterproductive to the goal of stopping
global warming.
CO2 levels have reached 385 ppm leading to accelerating loss of polar
ice and other problems associated with global warming. Reducing this
level by 75 ppm to a much safer 310 ppm would require the sequestering
of 150 billion tons (150 GT) of carbon. There are at least 15 billion
acres of degraded land on the planet which have lost 50% to 75% of
their original soil carbon. The potential carbon sink is at least 1000
GT in these soils if better land use decisions were made. (70 tons per
acre x 15 billion acres) Fire is used as a tool to reduce vegetation
on much of this land which is counterproductive to the goal of stopping
global warming.
The
return of perennial grasses to these lands through the use of grazing
animals can sequester a ton or more of carbon per acre every year.
Creating grazing plans to restore well timed animal impact to 80% of
these degraded lands could therefore absorb 12 GT of carbon from the
atmosphere every year. This compares favorably with human fossil fuel
emissions of 8 GT of carbon per year.
return of perennial grasses to these lands through the use of grazing
animals can sequester a ton or more of carbon per acre every year.
Creating grazing plans to restore well timed animal impact to 80% of
these degraded lands could therefore absorb 12 GT of carbon from the
atmosphere every year. This compares favorably with human fossil fuel
emissions of 8 GT of carbon per year.
Reducing
human fossil fuel burning 50% and replacing the tool of fire with
grazing and animal impact on 12 billion acres of degraded lands in the
next 40 years could reduce atmospheric CO2 levels to a rather benign
310 ppm by 2050.
human fossil fuel burning 50% and replacing the tool of fire with
grazing and animal impact on 12 billion acres of degraded lands in the
next 40 years could reduce atmospheric CO2 levels to a rather benign
310 ppm by 2050.
Consequences
of this soil restoration activity include the capture of huge amounts
of fresh water in these new soils and the subsequent amelioration of
flood and drought cycles. The improvement of water quality and supply
is reason by itself to begin this process. Healthy perennial
grasslands with their grazing herds can be a rich source of food for
human communities and their management doesn't require expensive
technology. Grass fed animals provide meat, milk, and eggs that are
rich in omega 3 oils and are healthier to eat than grain fed animals.
of this soil restoration activity include the capture of huge amounts
of fresh water in these new soils and the subsequent amelioration of
flood and drought cycles. The improvement of water quality and supply
is reason by itself to begin this process. Healthy perennial
grasslands with their grazing herds can be a rich source of food for
human communities and their management doesn't require expensive
technology. Grass fed animals provide meat, milk, and eggs that are
rich in omega 3 oils and are healthier to eat than grain fed animals.
Presently, there are 20 to 25 billion tons of
topsoil lost to the waterways and oceans every year. The dead zones
created by this runoff are devastating to fisheries the world over.
Soil erosion can be eliminated and reversed even on crop lands by
keeping the ground covered, eliminating chemical pesticides and
fertilizers, and using animal manures to maintain soil biodiversity.
topsoil lost to the waterways and oceans every year. The dead zones
created by this runoff are devastating to fisheries the world over.
Soil erosion can be eliminated and reversed even on crop lands by
keeping the ground covered, eliminating chemical pesticides and
fertilizers, and using animal manures to maintain soil biodiversity.
2) Scientific basis for estimates of sequestration potential in grasslands (Jim & Janice as main writers here?)
Rodale - Paul Hepperly
Australia - Christine Jones.
Richardsons on Dung Beetles
Importance of animal impact, ground cover, and eliminating fire.
Mycelium and Glomalin - Need to study
3) Argue that there is significant potential for net negative cost from this via brief case studies (Amanda, Jim, Seth,...??)
Abe Collins
Joel Salatin
Dubangombe, Zimbabwe
Sudan - Sam Bingham
Australia
First Millimeter
4) Argue that there is a plausible set of offset activities under this rubric ("carbon farmers") (Anja, can you help with this?)
5) Construct an estimate of global/regional potential (basically, Jim's Panera notes much expanded) (Eric, Flavia, anyone else?)
To have any opportunity to reverse global warming, we must first have a goal to work toward.
In
1949, the atmospheric CO2 concentration was 310 ppm ± 3 ppm. Lake Erie
would freeze almost every winter making it possible to walk from Long
Point in Ontario to Presque Isle State Park in Pennsylvania on the ice.
In 1988, the CO2 concentration passed 350 for the first time in 2
million years. By that time, polar ice melting was accelerating to the
point that Jim Hansen, made a plea to Congress
to face up to the situation and take action to reduce fossil fuel
emissions. Now, in 2009, we are approaching 390 ppm with with a yearly
increase at close to 2 ppm.
1949, the atmospheric CO2 concentration was 310 ppm ± 3 ppm. Lake Erie
would freeze almost every winter making it possible to walk from Long
Point in Ontario to Presque Isle State Park in Pennsylvania on the ice.
In 1988, the CO2 concentration passed 350 for the first time in 2
million years. By that time, polar ice melting was accelerating to the
point that Jim Hansen, made a plea to Congress
to face up to the situation and take action to reduce fossil fuel
emissions. Now, in 2009, we are approaching 390 ppm with with a yearly
increase at close to 2 ppm.
In December, 2007 Dr. Hansen challenged the IPCC to
lower their goal to stabilize atmospheric CO2 at 450 ppm. IPCC has
estimated that if the "carbon footprint" can be reduced by 50% by 2050,
we could peak at 450 ppm and then gradually reduce that level after
that. During the pliocene, about two million years ago, sea level was
80 feet higher than today, and the CO2 levels never exceeded 425 ppm
during that time. Hansen, aware of this information, called for a
reduction of CO2 levels to at least 350 ppm and preferably to 325 or
300 ppm. It is important to reach a level where the ice will reform
and the permafrost will stabilize and reduce methane emissions. A
level of 350 ppm might stop the melting but to reform ice would likely
require a much lower concentration. Hansen is opposed to any new coal
plants and shutting down existing coal plants to reduce the carbon
footprint, but acknowledges that we must do much more to get the excess
carbon out of the air.
lower their goal to stabilize atmospheric CO2 at 450 ppm. IPCC has
estimated that if the "carbon footprint" can be reduced by 50% by 2050,
we could peak at 450 ppm and then gradually reduce that level after
that. During the pliocene, about two million years ago, sea level was
80 feet higher than today, and the CO2 levels never exceeded 425 ppm
during that time. Hansen, aware of this information, called for a
reduction of CO2 levels to at least 350 ppm and preferably to 325 or
300 ppm. It is important to reach a level where the ice will reform
and the permafrost will stabilize and reduce methane emissions. A
level of 350 ppm might stop the melting but to reform ice would likely
require a much lower concentration. Hansen is opposed to any new coal
plants and shutting down existing coal plants to reduce the carbon
footprint, but acknowledges that we must do much more to get the excess
carbon out of the air.
To do that, we must go beyond reducing emissions.
We must become restorers of the photosynthesis process. Planting
forests will help, but restoring perennial grasslands and their
associated deep soils can sequester huge amounts of carbon and on a
shorter timeline. The consequences of this soil making approach would
reduce flood and drought cycles, feed people, and pay for itself
through agricultural productivity and recreational opportunities.
We must become restorers of the photosynthesis process. Planting
forests will help, but restoring perennial grasslands and their
associated deep soils can sequester huge amounts of carbon and on a
shorter timeline. The consequences of this soil making approach would
reduce flood and drought cycles, feed people, and pay for itself
through agricultural productivity and recreational opportunities.
Reduction Target Scenario
Let's make a goal.
Suppose
we want to return to 310 ppm atmospheric CO2 before 2050. Reducing 80
ppm from the present 390 ppm to 310 ppm would require removing 160
billion tons (160 GT) of carbon from the air and sequester it in soils
and biomass. (Since 1 ppm of atmospheric CO2 contains very close to 2
GT of carbon, it is rather easily calculated.) There are at least 15
billion acres of degraded land in the world which could be managed in
ways that would sequester a ton or more of carbon on each acre every
year. Better management decisions could therefore sequester 10 or more
GT of carbon into these soils every year.
we want to return to 310 ppm atmospheric CO2 before 2050. Reducing 80
ppm from the present 390 ppm to 310 ppm would require removing 160
billion tons (160 GT) of carbon from the air and sequester it in soils
and biomass. (Since 1 ppm of atmospheric CO2 contains very close to 2
GT of carbon, it is rather easily calculated.) There are at least 15
billion acres of degraded land in the world which could be managed in
ways that would sequester a ton or more of carbon on each acre every
year. Better management decisions could therefore sequester 10 or more
GT of carbon into these soils every year.
So we have 4 decades to consider: the 2010's,
2020's, 2030's, and 2040's. I will make a chart to help us see a path
back to 310.
2020's, 2030's, and 2040's. I will make a chart to help us see a path
back to 310.
I initially drew this chart on a
napkin at a Panera Bread Restaurant in 2008. It is an early attempt to
show the possibilities of a restorative approach. I'm sure that there
will be many discussions, and emerging new ideas. Many human beliefs
will be challenged If we focus on our goal of 310, and humans can make
a fair living on these processes, we may just get there before 2050.
Wouldn't that be COOL.
napkin at a Panera Bread Restaurant in 2008. It is an early attempt to
show the possibilities of a restorative approach. I'm sure that there
will be many discussions, and emerging new ideas. Many human beliefs
will be challenged If we focus on our goal of 310, and humans can make
a fair living on these processes, we may just get there before 2050.
Wouldn't that be COOL.
(Seth will turn this into a proper table) Link to Table
Fossil
Land Missing Atmospheric
Atmospheric Atmospheric
Land Missing Atmospheric
Atmospheric Atmospheric
Fuel
Use Carbon Carbon
CO2 (ppm) CO2 conc.
Use Carbon Carbon
CO2 (ppm) CO2 conc.
Year Burning (& Fire)
(Ocean?) Change Change
ppm
(Ocean?) Change Change
ppm
2010 8 GT
+ 4 GT - 8 GT = + 4 GT
+ 2 ppm 390
+ 4 GT - 8 GT = + 4 GT
+ 2 ppm 390
2020 7 GT + 0 GT
- 7 GT = 0 GT 0 ppm
400 (average CO2 gain of 1 ppm per year from
2010 to 2020)
- 7 GT = 0 GT 0 ppm
400 (average CO2 gain of 1 ppm per year from
2010 to 2020)
2030 6 GT - 4 GT
- 6 GT = - 4 GT - 2 ppm
390 (average CO2 loss of 1 ppm per year from
2020 to 2030)
- 6 GT = - 4 GT - 2 ppm
390 (average CO2 loss of 1 ppm per year from
2020 to 2030)
2040 5 GT - 8 GT
- 5 GT = - 8 GT - 4 ppm
360 (average CO2 loss of 3 ppm per year from
2030 to 2040)
- 5 GT = - 8 GT - 4 ppm
360 (average CO2 loss of 3 ppm per year from
2030 to 2040)
2050 4 GT - 12 GT
- 4 GT = - 12 GT - 6 ppm
310 (average CO2 loss of 5 ppm per year from
2040 to 2050)
- 4 GT = - 12 GT - 6 ppm
310 (average CO2 loss of 5 ppm per year from
2040 to 2050)
(50% reduction (50% less (sum of 3 (1 ppm CO2
by 2050) stress on previous equals 2 GT
oceans) columns) carbon)
The
second column reflects the IPCC goal to reduce the fossil fuel
footprint by 50% before 2050. The carbon emitted by fossil fuel
burning would drop from 8 GT per year to 4 GT per year during that 40
year span. If we can reduce by 80%, that would be great, but 50% would
still allow us to reach our goal.
second column reflects the IPCC goal to reduce the fossil fuel
footprint by 50% before 2050. The carbon emitted by fossil fuel
burning would drop from 8 GT per year to 4 GT per year during that 40
year span. If we can reduce by 80%, that would be great, but 50% would
still allow us to reach our goal.
The next column refers to Land Use & Fire.
Right now, this is a positive number and harder to accurately quantify
than fossil fuel emissions which are fairly well documented. Some
estimates of biomass burning are lower at about 2.5 GT per year. This
number comes largely from the tragedy of forest burning, but
underestimates the amount of fire used on grasslands. Oxidation from
cropland soils exposed to sunlight is another carbon source going to
the atmosphere. As you look down the column, you will notice that in
each decade it is reduced by 4 GT. By 2050 the Land Use column is
sucking 12 GT of carbon out of the air every year. This is a very big
number, but then consider that photosynthesis on the planet is
sequestering about 100 GT of carbon every year, even with the present
desertification and poor land use decisions in many areas.
(Photosynthesis is roughly balanced by respiration flows of about 100
GT per year.) I propose that increasing the photosynthetic flow by 12
GT or about 12% in 40 years by working with nature's processes is quite
reasonable. Also, another 4 GT can be saved by phasing out fire as a
land management tool. While there is debate about fire's role in the
past, we can ill afford to use it at anywhere near its present scale in
a greenhouse world. Grazing and animal impact are better tools to
reduce excess vegetation in grasslands and they can rapidly increase
soil carbon at the same time. How we get to a sequestration rate of 12
GT per year by creating soils is discussed elsewhere in this paper.
Right now, this is a positive number and harder to accurately quantify
than fossil fuel emissions which are fairly well documented. Some
estimates of biomass burning are lower at about 2.5 GT per year. This
number comes largely from the tragedy of forest burning, but
underestimates the amount of fire used on grasslands. Oxidation from
cropland soils exposed to sunlight is another carbon source going to
the atmosphere. As you look down the column, you will notice that in
each decade it is reduced by 4 GT. By 2050 the Land Use column is
sucking 12 GT of carbon out of the air every year. This is a very big
number, but then consider that photosynthesis on the planet is
sequestering about 100 GT of carbon every year, even with the present
desertification and poor land use decisions in many areas.
(Photosynthesis is roughly balanced by respiration flows of about 100
GT per year.) I propose that increasing the photosynthetic flow by 12
GT or about 12% in 40 years by working with nature's processes is quite
reasonable. Also, another 4 GT can be saved by phasing out fire as a
land management tool. While there is debate about fire's role in the
past, we can ill afford to use it at anywhere near its present scale in
a greenhouse world. Grazing and animal impact are better tools to
reduce excess vegetation in grasslands and they can rapidly increase
soil carbon at the same time. How we get to a sequestration rate of 12
GT per year by creating soils is discussed elsewhere in this paper.
The "Missing Carbon (Ocean?)" column is used as a
fudge factor. The oceans are absorbing a lot of CO2. We know this
because the ocean acidity is increasing and this is becoming a huge
problem for many critical plankton species. We also know that if the
oceans begin to warm significantly, they may not be able to absorb as
much CO2. So, I have reduce the carbon flow into the ocean by 50% in
the next 40 years. If that is what happens, it may mean reduced stress
on the oceans to keep up as atmospheric CO2 levels begin to drop. This
could ameliorate the ocean acidity increase or possibly reverse it in
that time. If the oceans continue to absorb CO2 at the present rates,
then our atmospheric CO2 levels may drop even faster and the planet can
begin to cool sooner.
fudge factor. The oceans are absorbing a lot of CO2. We know this
because the ocean acidity is increasing and this is becoming a huge
problem for many critical plankton species. We also know that if the
oceans begin to warm significantly, they may not be able to absorb as
much CO2. So, I have reduce the carbon flow into the ocean by 50% in
the next 40 years. If that is what happens, it may mean reduced stress
on the oceans to keep up as atmospheric CO2 levels begin to drop. This
could ameliorate the ocean acidity increase or possibly reverse it in
that time. If the oceans continue to absorb CO2 at the present rates,
then our atmospheric CO2 levels may drop even faster and the planet can
begin to cool sooner.
Adding these 3 columns gives the atmospheric carbon
change for that year. In the last few years, the increase in
atmospheric CO2 has been close to 2 ppm per year. Remember, that 2 ppm
of CO2 contains 4 GT of carbon. In each decade, our better management
decisions are reducing this number by about 2 ppm. The notes to the
right give and average annual CO2 change for the decade. If you
multiply by 10 years, you get the change in CO2 during that decade.
(This assumes that the changes are fairly linear.) The first two
decades are a wash and the CO2 levels don't change very much. By 2030,
however, there are about 6 billion acres of previously degraded lands
being restored as they are producing crops, animals, and wildlife
habitat. In the final two decades the CO2 drop begins to accelerate.
In 2040, CO2 drops 4 ppm in one year. In 2050, it drops by 6 ppm.
The average for that decade is about 5 ppm per year or a total of 50
ppm, reducing the atmospheric CO2 from 360 ppm in 2040 to our goal of
310 ppm in 2050.
change for that year. In the last few years, the increase in
atmospheric CO2 has been close to 2 ppm per year. Remember, that 2 ppm
of CO2 contains 4 GT of carbon. In each decade, our better management
decisions are reducing this number by about 2 ppm. The notes to the
right give and average annual CO2 change for the decade. If you
multiply by 10 years, you get the change in CO2 during that decade.
(This assumes that the changes are fairly linear.) The first two
decades are a wash and the CO2 levels don't change very much. By 2030,
however, there are about 6 billion acres of previously degraded lands
being restored as they are producing crops, animals, and wildlife
habitat. In the final two decades the CO2 drop begins to accelerate.
In 2040, CO2 drops 4 ppm in one year. In 2050, it drops by 6 ppm.
The average for that decade is about 5 ppm per year or a total of 50
ppm, reducing the atmospheric CO2 from 360 ppm in 2040 to our goal of
310 ppm in 2050.
This will be the biggest human accomplishment ever.
We have the possibility of reversing global warming and
desertification in our lifetimes. It need not require expensive new
technologies. Our allies in this venture are the innumerable natural
systems that will do most of the work. We must nurture and provide
habitat for the many species that we depend on for a future.
We have the possibility of reversing global warming and
desertification in our lifetimes. It need not require expensive new
technologies. Our allies in this venture are the innumerable natural
systems that will do most of the work. We must nurture and provide
habitat for the many species that we depend on for a future.
Maybe in 2049, we will be able to walk across Lake Erie again on a cooler planet. See you at Long Point?
Read more!
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